Official Australian housing demand & supply projections to 2020

2011 March 5
by Tim Riley

Thought I would share this comprehensive piece of analysis on current and projected future housing supply and demand from the National Housing Supply Council.

The State of Supply Report 2010 includes the Council’s estimates for:

  • projections for underlying demand and land and housing supply over 20 years from 2009 to 2029
  • the gap between housing demand and supply
  • demand, supply & affordability for low income renters

I thought Table 7.3 made some interesting reading…

Demand & Supply Gap - State of Housing Supply report 2010

Key take outs

The main take outs from the report for me were that:

  • the gap between demand and supply is likely to continue to grow
  • by 2014 the overall gap is projected to grow to 308,000 dwellings (based on assumptions of medium growth in supply and underlying demand)
  • by 2029 the same projection assumptions predict a cumulative gap of 604,600 dwellings
  • it will be difficult to increase the supply side because it is hard to develop infill housing in the current housing market and planning framework
  • the ageing population will increase demand for different types of dwellings – seeing a shift in demand for smaller dwellings
  • around two-thirds of the additional demand is projected to be in and around four of the major cities: Melbourne (19%), Sydney (16%), Perth (10%) and Brisbane & the surrounding areas in South East Queensland (21%).

In particular its worth reading¬†Chapter 4 on the demand-supply balance, or in Australia’s case -¬†in-balance.

Unfortunately the Appendices in the report do not drill down to Local Council Area so you can see the projections at anything under a state level.

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